• September 1, 2024


PHOTO USA Today Sports Images

It’s time for MLB teams to do one of a couple things with their expanded rosters. 

Teams in the playoff race go all-in to see where guys coming up from Triple-A can help either win a game or provide a rest day to a starter who needs it. For the also-rans, it’s time to look at their best prospects and see who’s ready to contribute for them in 2025.

For the Chicago White Sox, it’s time to do whatever they can to avoid history. At 31-106, the White Sox have to go at least 11-14 in the season’s final month to avoid breaking the 1962 New York Mets’ record for most losses in a season in the modern era. Given that the Pale Hose have averaged just six wins a month, that’s a pretty tall order.

But we’ll get to that in a bit. For now, the important thing to remember is that everyone has a shot of new blood in the clubhouse, which can change how teams play over the final four weeks. Here’s a look at the best bets for September 1.

San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Dylan Cease has taken the fact that he doesn’t have to be perfect in San Diego to heart — and perhaps too well. In Chicago, Cease had to be pretty close to perfect to give the White Sox a chance to win. In San Diego, the Padres have hitters, so there’s not as much pressure. But Cease has relaxed a bit too much in August, allowing three earned runs per start. He hasn’t made it through five innings in five of six starts, and this is a pitcher who regularly goes six or seven.

Ryan Pepiot has been a much more reliable option. As long as he keeps the ball in the park, he’s proven adept at limiting damage. In his past four starts, he’s allowed four earned runs, and three were via the long ball. San Diego hits — better than anyone at batting average, in fact — but the Padres manufacture runs more than power them into existence. That doesn’t work so well against Pepiot. 

Rays moneyline (+118 at Caesars)

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New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox

In general, picking a team that’s on an eight-game losing streak is a bad idea. When that team is one of the worst in its sport’s history, it’s an even worse idea. So why am I doing it here? Well, Chicago’s going to have to win one eventually, especially if it hopes to avoid ignominy. This is one of their best options, because Sean Manaea isn’t pitching as well as he usually does.

Manaea has allowed three earned runs in four straight starts, and the Mets’ bullpen isn’t one of the team’s strengths. Chicago’s one bright spot is its starting pitching, and the White Sox have won back-to-back games with Garret Crochet on the mound. Crochet doesn’t go for long periods, but he does usually give the White Sox a chance.

There’s also the pressure factor. After this home game, the White Sox visit Baltimore and Boston next week. With both of those teams desperate for wins, if Chicago loses this game, the loss streak could reach 15 and really put the pressure on the White Sox to avoid history. The Pale Hose need to win.

White Sox moneyline (+145 at BetMGM)

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians

Mitch Keller is probably out of bullets for 2024. The Pirates’ other young hurler (after Paul Skenes) has performed well this year, but his past four starts suggest that he’s out of juice. He’s allowed 18 runs in four starts, and that’s with a shutout of Texas in there. Against teams with a pulse (read: over. 500), his ERA over his past three starts is a horrifying 12.40.

You read that right.

Cleveland isn’t a fantastic offense by any means, but the days of the Guardians being an automatic under are gone. They’ve got a middling offense that’s capable of big days against struggling pitchers, and Keller qualifies. The Pirates’ bullpen also isn’t exactly doing its job; this is the group that allowed the Cubs to overcome a seven-run deficit after seven innings. The Guardians should score here.

Guardians Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+116 at FanDuel)

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