- December 11, 2024
The Likelihood of a Plaza Accord 2.0
Mark Sobel at OMFIF discusses the likelihood of an new Plaza Accord to depreciate the dollar. Given one would need Euro area and Chinese agreement,
Who’s Real Wage? | Econbrowser
EJ Antoni writes: Today’s employment data showed further gains in earnings, but cumulative price increases have still far outpaced earnings growth over the last 4
The Declining Driving Miles Intensity of GDP
Trend shifted down, but sensitivity up. Figure 1: Log of ratio of vehicle miles traveled to monthly GDP (000’s miles divided by bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR) (blue),
Ruble Devaluation Giveth and Devaluation Taketh Away
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate. Figure 1: Rubles per yuan, calculated using dollar rates (blue, log scale). Up is a depreciation of the ruble. Source:
The Ruble under Pressure | Econbrowser
From Politico: The ruble tumbled on Wednesday to its lowest level in over two years, as a mix of low oil prices, new sanctions against
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists (from Someone Who Doesn’t Know What “Mainstream” Economists Do), Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge: The question is whether policies being considered by the next Presidential administration will lead to “Trumpflation” or not.
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based
What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to be
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core
