The horse racing broadcaster details four often-cited Cheltenham Festival statistics to watch, including a stunning stat about WIllie Mullins.
Cheltenham Festival key statistics (07/03/2025)
Something a little different this week as the Festival draws ever closer.
Mark Twain said: “There are three types of lies. Lies, damned lies and statistics.”
As someone who loves numbers, this quote has always stuck in my throat a bit, so I thought it might be fun to look at four statistics that have been much quoted at Cheltenham Festival preview nights and potentially impact some of the week’s leading fancies.
Whether I think they are valid or not, you may have to wait to discover in my blogs next week, so see what you think of this quartet and whether it has any impact on your Cheltenham betting opinions.
1. Five-year-olds are 0/16 in the Arkle since Conditions were changed in 2007
This applies to Majborough 8/15 and would also have applied to Sir Gino, had he lined up. With the current price being so short, Majoborough is the one doing the most heavy lifting. Prior to the changes, five-year-olds had a good record – Champleve in 1998, Flagship Uberalles in 1999, Well Chief in 2004 and the last to win it, Voy Por Ustedes in 2006. But since they have competed at level weights rather than receiving a 5lb allowance, the statistic for five-year-olds is 0/16 with exchange SP’s giving an expected winning number of 1.73.
None have had anything like the chance Majborough has and he is physically very imposing for one of his age, but others among the 16 to have tried and failed are Saint Calvados (Unpl. 11-4), Fakir D’Oudairies (2nd 3/1), Riviere D’Etel (Unpl. 7-2) and Tatenen (Fell 4-1). To balance things, it should be noted that Kruguyrova did finish second at 9-1.
2. Challow Hurdle winners are 0/21 in Festival races that same season
This one has been doing the rounds for years. Some have gone close, like Denman and Reve De Sivola, and some have won at future Festivals such as Wichita Lineman, but still none in the same season.
The reason often put forward for this is that the Challow is run over the Christmas period, often on very deep ground – conditions which are then not replicated at the Festival. This season the ground was both unusually decent and the winner, The New Lion ( 1500/1000 for the Turners), was very impressive.
One other reason for this statistic is none of those Challow winners were trained in Ireland, and the Irish have dominated the Grade 1 novice hurdles at the Festival over recent seasons. Whether this stat holds or not may well depend on whether the likes of Final Demand and The Yellow Clay line up against The New Lion or run in the Albert Bartlett.
3. Horses running in hoods in Grade 1s since 2015 are 2/92 vs expected winners of 6.70
There have been lots of rumours that short-priced Supreme favourite Kopek Des Bordes 4/5 may have a hood applied to help relax him, so this stat has received quite an airing. There are a couple of points of mitigation, though. Quite often statistics are massaged by starting them at a convenient point. If this had been extended back just one more year it would have included two more winners in Western Warhorse and Jezki, who both won in hoods at the 2014 Festival.
The other point is that the two who have won in hoods since 2015 are both trained, like Kopek Des Bordes, by Willie Mullins in Ferny Hollow and Gaelic Warrior (in last year’s Arkle). His own stable stats do, however, still only come out at 2/42 vs Expected 3.91 (A/E 0.51), so runners in hoods do have a poor overall Festival record.
4. Willie Mullins’ Handicap Chasers are 0/48 at the Festival
Given Closutton’s excellent Festival record, this stat is clearly quite a standout. The Expected number of winners is not massively high at 2.84, reflecting a high number of big-priced horses, but there have also only been two second places among the 48 despite 11 going off at single-figure prices.
A curio or a good angle? One potential difference this year could be the change of the National Hunt Chase to a handicap. The yard do tend to have some leading candidates in that race, though the majority have been class horses who have been suited by level weights.
There will be Cheltenham Festival tips every day next week when these statistics and all the selections will be put to the only test that matters!
Cheltenham Festival betting tips (28/2/2025)
Most of my Cheltenham Festival betting revolves around the handicaps as I feel unless you have a specific strong view against the mainstream, the majority of the Championship races are pretty accurately priced as the entries have been out for so long and they tend to be the higher profile races.
My logic for focusing on the handicaps revolves around the fact that these races are unusually competitive and more relentless in their nature than the run-of-the-mill events that are seen week in, week out. That means certain horses suited to them then spend the next 12 months trying to drop themselves to an effective mark so they will be competitive the following year – think Langer Dan and Buena Vista. If you are an owner whose horse has run well at the Festival, then you are probably dreaming of a return visit and are happy for your charge to be run accordingly.
So here is my shortlist of horses with previous Festival form who appear to be lining up this year off decent marks. Inevitably, there will be a few whose better days are behind them, but given the prices available you can pull plenty of wrong reins and still make a profit – unlike the number of shorter-priced favourites in the conditions races.
HAPPYGOLUCKY – Ultima Handicap Chase 25000/1000
This race always appeals as one to get stuck into, as the Irish have a poor record and it is a race where form from previous years has proved a solid guide. Happygolucky finished second in 2021 off 147 and still looked high when down the field in 2023, though a long absence afterwards suggested there may be other issues at play. Dropped markedly in his absence and switched to Mel Rowley, the horse remains in the same ownership and showed enough on his return off a mark that had been dropped 9lbs and has since been eased another three. This means he will line up off 140, well below the 2021 mark. The stable went close last year with a horse in these colours who had made the same switch – Kyntara – who was only caught late on in the Pertemps. Kyntara himself will line up off a good mark in the National Hunt Chase but I just can’t see his jumping holding up.
GERICAULT ROQUE – National Hunt Novices Chase 12000/1000 / Kim Muir Challenge Cup 998000/1000
Such was the promise of this novice season it is hard to believe that Gericault Roque has still not won over fences, but this is due to injuries that have plagued him since he was third in the 2022 Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off 137. He was off for a mammoth 783 days before an encouraging third at Windsor – a track that would hardly have played to his strengths. A further drop of 2lbs sees him off 131, so 8lb lower than that Coral Gold Cup run. He stays well and so I would hope he will go the National Hunt Chase route but I would happily support him in either race in which he lines up. He is still only nine and very lightly raced, and if he holds together physically he could land his maiden chase win, three years after finishing second to Corach Rambler in the Ultima off 138.
EDITEUR DU GITE – Grand Annual Chase 998000/1000
This looks the biggest risk so far, given how his form seems to have dropped off a cliff and he is now 11 with plenty of miles on the clock. He has, as a consequence of those poor runs, dropped to a very appealing mark of 140. He did win a Grade 2 as recently as December 2023 and ran fourth off 153 in this race in 2022. The price reflects the poor form figures and is worth a throw at the stumps, given his back class and freefalling handicap mark.
CREBILLY – Ultima Handicap Chase 9000/1000 / Festival Plate 998000/1000
This is a horse that looks to fit the criteria perfectly. He has always made the odd error over fences, but that didn’t stop him finishing second in the Plate last year off 140. He has been artistically campaigned to see him line up off 138 this time around. He ran well enough behind Matata at Windsor after a light campaign to suggest the Festival has always been the target, and I would prefer him to run in the Plate as I already have Happygolucky in the Ultima and 3m would be a query for Crebilly. He is one of many JP McManus owned fancies for the Festival and he is likely to be well supported if this been the goal.
BALLYADAM – Coral Cup 14/1
Ballyadam has been really unlucky not to have won at the Festival. He was runner-up in the Supreme, bumped into State Man off 142 in the County Hurdle, and last year was second to Langer Dan, whose victory off 141 was followed by him just failing in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle just a few weeks later. Ballyadam is slightly higher this year after winning on his belated return to action in December, but the De Bromhead yard were quiet at the time and are going much better now. There won’t be many horses lining up next month who deserve a Festival win more, and the fact he only has the one entry makes it easy to determine the target.
