The horse racing broadcaster offer his selections from the cards at Newbury, Market Rasen and Ripon, and provides a stable tracker update.
After the fireworks of last weekend, things are a fair bit quieter this Saturday with seven races on ITV split between Newbury and the jumping card at Market Rasen.
REGIONAL
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(15:00 Newbury) missed the July Cup last week and has an easier engagement here on ground that will be more suitable after the welcome appearance of the sun this week. Fast ground suits Ed Bethell’s genuine sprinter, and his Sprint Cup victory last season at Haydock has worked out well with subsequent Group 1 winners Khaadem and Mill Stream behind that day. The only slight concern is the yard are not flying in the way they were around Royal Ascot, where Regional ran a very creditable second over 5f behind Aussie sprinter Asfoorah in the King Charles III.
The traditional cavalry charge of this card is the Weatherbys Super Sprint for two-year-olds but it is notable this season for some absences. Firstly, the total number of runners at 19 is less than usual, with both Ain’t Nobody and Amestris significant omissions. I would have been happy to take on Ain’t Nobody had he attempted to back up quickly from Newmarket last week, while Amestris removes one of the major dangers to IT AIN’T TWO
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(15:35 Newbury). Her debut win from Amestris at Newmarket threw up four next time out winners and is solid form, while her subsequent efforts behind the likes of Celandine and Aesterius also read well. There is not much of her, so a low weight will suit, and hopefully she can prove too nippy for Kaadi and also Vingegaard, who was drawn away from where the race developed in the Windsor Castle.
Summer jumping does tend to rather pass me by at this stage of the season, but it has been noticeable in the last few weeks that the Peter and Mickey Bowen yard – they now share the license – is in its traditionally strong period at this this time of year. From April through to August, the yard show a positive A/E every single month, and even though the races this weekend are more competitive, FLYING FORTUNE
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(14:05 Market Rasen) bumped into one at the top of her game in Gale Mahler last time and looks fairly treated on her move back into handicap company.
Away from the ITV action, Declan Carroll’s yard seems to have turned the corner in the last week and it is a stable I always pay close attention to when they hit form. VANITY PAYS
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(17:05 Ripon) has only had one start for the yard, resulting in a close-up fourth at Doncaster. Well drawn in stall 11 to dictate close to the stands rail, he has dropped a long way since showing form in Ireland for Paddy Twomey and can belatedly break his maiden here in a race confined to horses that have not won this calendar year.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Two jockeys this week on their way to venues where they have historically ridden more winners than the market predicted.
Cartmel: Richie McLernon (19/106 A/E 1.80) has four rides, three of which are for in-form trainer Ben Haslam and include Dr. Sanderson in the 14:50, who he rode to victory here last month.
Market Rasen: Lee Edwards (13/98 A/E 1.83) has wo rides, including Can’t Beat History (17:00), who he has ridden to three wins in the horse’s last four starts.
STABLE TRACKER UPDATE
Four runners since the last update.
Ellaria Sand won at 7/2, showing a good turn of foot. She is released but could well win again upped in grade.
Kingswood finished fourth at 14/1, running respectably and has one run left, which hopefully will occur in one of the bigger field Goodwood handicaps.
Original Outlaw finished second as 2/1 favourite at Salisbury. Even though he was beaten by a well-bred newcomer, he continues to look awkward which is a concern. One run left, but he could be his own worst enemy.
Finally, Vaunted was unplaced at Bath but blew her race at the start and is well worth another chance. She is feisty and needs things to drop right but is not best judged on this and has two more chances to prove it.
There are two runners on Friday in Brightwalton and Glamour Show, who are both in the same race, the 15:00 at Newbury.
Additions for the week are FORAGER, who bumped into an about average debutant at a lowly level at Kempton in the week. He was still a bit keen but travelled strongly through the race and will be competitive in a similar Restricted race.
The other one is WE’RE REUNITED, who got no run at all at his beloved Bath on Wednesday. He never had any room to operate and was never asked any sort of question. He is a bit better than his last few runs suggest (pestered on the lead the previous start) and there are races back at Bath towards the end of August and mid-September in which he has run well in the past.
Released: Ellaria Sand
Added: Forager, We’re Reunited
You can view the full stable tracker here.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024 (Actual Wins/Expected Wins)
Selections: 36/36.75, A/E 0.98
Jockeys For Courses: 34/38.27, A/E: 0.89
Stable Tracker: 18/19.95, A/E: 0.90
Total: 88/94.97, A/E: 0.93
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