- October 25, 2025
Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate
alexmccullough at Dune has a very good post on the accuracy of Polymarket prediction markets. First, how do we measure accuracy? Suppose a prediction market
Creative Destruction in a Nutshell
A good figure from the Nobel Prize Foundation’s Scientific Background to the Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt Nobel. The figure shows that firm exit rates and
Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no
Democracy and Capitalism are Mutually Reinforcing
Many people argue that democracy is incompatible with capitalism but they differ on whether democracy will kill capitalism or whether capitalism will kill democracy. Peter
Ian Smith’s memoir *Bitter Harvest: The Great Betrayal*
Yes he used to run Rhodesia, and yes it is costly to buy this book because no one wants to reprint it, for obvious reasons.
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this post. Source link
The ai Boom
The tiny country of Anguilla (pop 15,000) has an official country top-level domain code for the internet of .ai. Domain name registrations have surged from
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
From The Hill: Source: Times of Israel. The White House is withdrawing the nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a rising
