- October 31, 2025
ACA Premiums without Extension of Expanded Tax Credit
Data from Pew, for average marketplace benchmark plans, per month: Figure 1: Average benchmark ACA premium (Silver plan, 40yr old), $/mo (blue).
What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
Amicus Brief, and NTU Open Letter: Signatories: Stan Veuger is Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Visiting Lecturer of Economics at Harvard University.
Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate
alexmccullough at Dune has a very good post on the accuracy of Polymarket prediction markets. First, how do we measure accuracy? Suppose a prediction market
Creative Destruction in a Nutshell
A good figure from the Nobel Prize Foundation’s Scientific Background to the Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt Nobel. The figure shows that firm exit rates and
Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no
Democracy and Capitalism are Mutually Reinforcing
Many people argue that democracy is incompatible with capitalism but they differ on whether democracy will kill capitalism or whether capitalism will kill democracy. Peter
Ian Smith’s memoir *Bitter Harvest: The Great Betrayal*
Yes he used to run Rhodesia, and yes it is costly to buy this book because no one wants to reprint it, for obvious reasons.
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
From Alberto Cavallo in the Harvard Gazette: See the interactive in the article. More on Cavallo et al. in this post. Source link
The ai Boom
The tiny country of Anguilla (pop 15,000) has an official country top-level domain code for the internet of .ai. Domain name registrations have surged from
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate
