- October 17, 2024
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at
Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0: Source: NOAA. Following: Source:Time, Feb 1, 2020. From Project 2025, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise on page 666: The
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
From the IMF (9/27/2024): Figure 1: USD share of total reserves as reported (light blue), and USD share plus 60% of unallocated share (bold blue).
“It’s almost as if you have no economics training at all…”
With apologies to Kramer’s boss in Seinfeld. From Oren Cass’s “Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal: Economists aren’t telling the whole truth about tariffs,” The Atlantic:
Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Upcoming Webinar
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report). Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.
