- November 17, 2024
What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to be
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core
Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solution
Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need for facts. I recommend EconoFact’s
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0 | Econbrowser
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of GDP (blue), and as share
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10% tariffs, in GDP and inflation
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs.
Puerto Rico under Trump | Econbrowser
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities. Figure 1: EDB of PR Economic Activity Index (black, left scale), nonfarm payroll employment, (blue, right scale), civilian employment
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%. That’s assuming (1) adaptive expectations, and (2) the inflation rate is
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1: Source: Antoni. Item 2: Source: Antoni. Not that the data are “wrong” (I’m not a data conspiracy theorist). Just without context, it’s pretty
I talk with Scott Wolla
Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in
