- October 5, 2024
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
From the IMF (9/27/2024): Figure 1: USD share of total reserves as reported (light blue), and USD share plus 60% of unallocated share (bold blue).
“It’s almost as if you have no economics training at all…”
With apologies to Kramer’s boss in Seinfeld. From Oren Cass’s “Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal: Economists aren’t telling the whole truth about tariffs,” The Atlantic:
Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Upcoming Webinar
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report). Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs: So… …with inflation nearly down to target levels while signs of economic slowing mount, the Fed can
Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Thank you, Pingry
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to
I talk with Scott Cunningham
Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in
Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during
