- November 4, 2024
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10% tariffs, in GDP and inflation
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs.
Puerto Rico under Trump | Econbrowser
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities. Figure 1: EDB of PR Economic Activity Index (black, left scale), nonfarm payroll employment, (blue, right scale), civilian employment
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%. That’s assuming (1) adaptive expectations, and (2) the inflation rate is
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1: Source: Antoni. Item 2: Source: Antoni. Not that the data are “wrong” (I’m not a data conspiracy theorist). Just without context, it’s pretty
I talk with Scott Wolla
Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at
Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0: Source: NOAA. Following: Source:Time, Feb 1, 2020. From Project 2025, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise on page 666: The
