- September 26, 2024
Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Upcoming Webinar
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report). Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs: So… …with inflation nearly down to target levels while signs of economic slowing mount, the Fed can
Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Thank you, Pingry
About Me Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to
I talk with Scott Cunningham
Name: Greg Mankiw Location: United States I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in
Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while preliminary
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation: “some suspect government statisticians are committing lies of omission.”
And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure! EJ Antoni links to article noting Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS), Ted Budd (R-NC),
More on the Preliminary Benchmark in Context
Recall the preliminary benchmark deducted 818K from the March NFP reading. Figure 1: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark
