Novak Djokovic rolled back the years to defeat two-time defending Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner but now faces world number one Carlos Alcaraz in the final as he bids for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title
The Australian Open reaches its conclusion at Melbourne Park on Saturday as 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic bids for a record-breaking success when he takes on Carlos Alcaraz, who is hoping to create his own piece of history.
While Djokovic would become the first player, male or female, to win 25 Grand Slams, Alcaraz could become the youngest male player to complete the career Slam – eclipsing the record set by his compatriot Rafael Nadal – with a success on the Rod Laver Arena.
Read on for our best bets for the men’s Australian Open final.
Men’s Australian Open Final Best Bets
Alcaraz poised to deny Djokovic once again
Novak Djokovic produced a remarkable comeback to defeat Jannik Sinner in Friday’s second semi-final, but now the 38-year-old Serb will have to put it all on the line again against world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz.
Once famed for his physical endurance, Djokovic’s body has let him down in recent seasons, but he strained every sinew in his five-set triumph over Sinner, rolling back the years to stun the Italian, who was a heavy favourite in the pre-match betting.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, cramped up badly in his semi-final win over Alexander Zverev, in which he too fought back from an even more perilous position, reeling off four straight games to take the final set 7-5.
Both men have to prove themselves able to recover physically, and while Djokovic has shown himself to be capable of doing so in the past, there are no guarantees he will be able to repeat the trick as he closes in on his 39th birthday.
The Serb has benefited from huge fortune to reach this stage – his round-of-16 opponent Jakub Mensik withdrew prior to their match and he trailed Lorenzo Musetti by two sets in the quarter-finals before the Italian suffered a match-ending muscular injury.
There was no fluke about his win over Sinner, and he’s not without a chance of upsetting the odds once again, but it’s also a big ask for the 10-time Melbourne hero to summon the energy he will require to defeat Alcaraz.
He did just that on the Rod Laver Arena last year, defeating a below-par Alcaraz in four sets in the semi-finals, but three of their last four Grand Slam meetings have gone the way of the younger player, and that’s likely to be the case again.
Djokovic has the will and determination to at least make this competitive, but Alcaraz was able to find enough magic when he needed it against Zverev, and he’s taken to prevail once again, with a 3-1 correct-score bet looking the best way to support him.
Tip 1: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 11/4
Total games count could remain low
Given the energy both men expended in the semi-finals, there could also be value in going under the total games line.
The pair have combined for some memorable matches and some drama-filled tiebreaks in recent seasons, most notably at the Paris Olympics where Djokovic claimed the gold, but only three of their last 15 Grand Slam sets went to a breaker.
If either player goes behind in the final, they could take their foot off the pedal in an attempt to conserve energy for future sets.
Tip 2: Under 39.5 games @ 4/5
