The horse racing broadcaster picks out his five best bets from a big day of racing before Christmas, including one in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.
Ascot and Haydock provide ITV’s pre-Christmas coverage, sharing seven races. The feature is the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle over 3m, where Gordon Elliott can make another successful raid on the Berkshire track with HONESTY POLICY / (14:25 Ascot).
Elliott is having a fine season in Ireland, holding off the massing Mullins battalions for longer into the season than is usually the case. His record this month stands at 20/69 with an A/E ratio of 1.53 (outperforming market expectations by 53 per cent).
The stable’s record at Ascot is also a positive one (6/33, A/E 1.72), and in Honesty Policy they have one of the few progressive horses in this division. Winner of a Grade 1 at Aintree as a novice, he only found Jasmin De Vaux (out for the season) too strong at Punchestown on his first start at the trip, and the whole staying scene is ripe for the emergence of a new star.
Personally, I remain suspicious of the Newbury form that saw Impose Toi defeat solid benchmark horse Strong Leader. It was Impose Toi’s first attempt at the trip, and his win was still characterised by the odd jumping blemish. With the rain of recent days and the climb up from Swinley Bottom placing more emphasis on stamina, he could be vulnerable, and it looks significant that JP McManus has covered more than one base by sending over Honesty Policy. Strong Leader also still has his own way of jumping, but the main concern with him is that his form is better on flat tracks, and he bombed out in this race last year.
By contrast, Crambo loves Ascot and will be looking for a third consecutive win in the race, but it is hard to forgive a pretty woeful effort in the Ascot Hurdle on his seasonal return when behind Potters Charm and Altobelli, all of which makes me favour Honesty being the best Policy.
Crambo is not the only runner on Ascot’s card looking for a threepeat, as VICTORRINO / (15:00 Ascot) is also looking for a third win in the valuable Howden Silver Cup. He held his place more easily this time around in the Gold Cup at Newbury but could not match his staying-on third of last season, eventually finishing well held. However, like many of his stable companions, Ascot’s chase course seems to suit him surprisingly well – think of Martator as another example – and the rain of recent days will also have been in his favour. His rider, Charlie Deutsch, has an exceptional record at the track (24/86, A/E 1.88), and while Victorrino is 3lb higher than last year, he won off this mark at Ascot in February, and it is hard to believe he has not been targeted at the race.
The Deutsch/Williams combination also have chances with The Famous Five in the 13:50 Ascot, a 2m 2f handicap chase. He got a particularly good ride in defeat at Newbury, where he seemed to back off several fences early – something he won’t be able to get away with here on the deceptively sharp chase track. Similar accusations about courage can also be levelled at BAD / (13:50 Ascot), but given that he clearly made his effort too early in the December Gold Cup and curled up on the run-in. With Panic Attack’s subsequent win in the Newbury Gold Cup and Vincenzo placing in the December Gold Cup, that form looks superior to most in this line-up, but there will be a moment of truth when Ben Jones, who knows him well, asks him to go through with his effort.
The card closes with a 2m handicap hurdle where one of the season’s most improved hurdlers, Alexei, will be looking for his third win of the season. His victory here as recently as November was off a mark of 127, and he lines up fully 20lb higher just six weeks later after his demolition of the field in the Greatwood sparked hopes he can, in time, make up into a Graded horse. In WILFUL / (15:35 Ascot), however, he faces an opponent that has a major pull in the weights from their reappearances in the Welsh Champion Hurdle when they were placed behind Celtic Dino. Alexei received 7lb that day when 1½l in front of Wilful but now has to give his rival 12lb. Wilful’s previous run at Punchestown at the end of last season has proved really strong, with four next-time-out winners, and the stable’s runners are going much better since the end of a self-imposed shutdown, and he can pay for a few extras in the Christmas stocking.
Over at Haydock, FAMOUS BRIDGE / (14:05 Haydock) may be worth another chance in the Tommy Whittle to reverse recent track form with Top of The Bill and Saladin’s Son. Well beaten that day, he travelled well for a long way before back-pedalling from three out and was reported to have lost his action. As mentioned on many occasions in this column, forgiving a horse one bad run when comparing it to his overall career profile often means recency bias sees them go off over the odds on their next start. Famous Bridge placed in this race off 137 last season and lines up 2lb lower here despite his win at the track in the Grand National trial in February. His yard remain in good form, and his form figures at Haydock read 11U317.
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