The horse racing broadcaster has five selections on offer for the Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Curragh.
There are nine live races on ITV on Saturday, the majority of which come from the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot. No doubt the presence of unfamiliar names in the saddle will lead to an increased level of jockey bashing if things go awry, but it is worth remembering as a punter you sometimes benefit from other hard luck stories when your horse wins. When any selection scores it is human nature to want to puff your chest out and take all the credit, whilst when they get beaten in part to any tactical misjudgement or trouble in running then the blame is quickly apportioned elsewhere. That can be a dangerous path to go down as once you see smoke and mirrors at every turn it can severely impact your objectivity, which should include acknowledging that at times you were the beneficiary of a bet that won but probably should not have.
The other great weapon we have as punters have is the ability to pick your battles rather than blindly bet in every race. My first engagement will be with VESPASIAN / (13:35 Ascot) who looks overpriced in a shallow looking opener. Much improved since his last UK run, a win at Wolverhampton in October 2023 off just 76, he had an excellent winter in Dubai in 2024 where never out of the first two in four starts and so lines up here off a much higher mark of 95. There is always the legitimate concern as to whether a horse can transfer Dubai form back in the UK, but the absence from the track should be less of a worry with a yard that has a good record with horses off breaks of 300 days or more (8/34 A/E 1.56). The last of which to win was Quddwah, who lowered the colours of no less a horse than Docklands at his beloved Ascot in the 2024 Pavillion Stakes off a break of just shy of a year.
Other horses to catch the eye later in the Shergar Cup card are the consistent NIGHT BREEZE / (14:45 Ascot) for Australian based Robbie Dolan, whose last visit to Ascot was when leading up Jet Setting in the 2016 Coronation Stakes for Richard Hannon. Night Breeze’s trainer Ian Williams is a big supporter of this meeting and Night Breeze placed off this mark over course and distance last time. His record since moving into handicaps, his first win was off just 62, has been an impressive one and he looks the ideal conveyance for this type of competition. If the name Robbie Dolan sounds familiar it’s because he attracted a lot of publicity when making the final stages of the Australian version of ‘The Voice’, and it is a shrewd investment by Ascot to invite someone who can perform not just on the track but also at the ‘After Party’!
Finally at Ascot I won’t be deserting TENABILITY / (15:55 Ascot) on his attempt to land a hat trick for the column. He caught my eye on his debut at Nottingham and has made the anticipated improvement since going handicapping after winning a Windsor novice, which also coincided with a tongue tie being fitted. Another horse who is proven over course and distance he can cope with the 7lb rise under experienced French rider Delphine Santiago and whilst the ‘Girls’ team has been disbanded this year it is worth pointing out the excellent record they have on this card.
Away from Ascot SHUWARI / (14:25 Haydock) looks to have been found a good opportunity in the Listed Dick Hern Stakes over 1m if she retains anything like the ability she showed as a juvenile. The big caveat is clearly the absence of over 500 days before her reappearance in a Listed race at Kempton in March and the fact she has not been seen again since. The fact connections are keeping her in training suggests they still feel she can be competitive in Pattern company and after a quiet first half of the season Ollie Sangster’s horses appear to be running into form. There has been a lot of water under the bridge since her second in the Group 1 Fillies Mile, one place ahead of See The Fire. But this is a good spot to show that she retains sufficient class and hopefully physical resilience to turn away smart but inferior rivals.
The highest quality racing of the day takes place in Ireland courtesy of a potential repeat clash between two of Aidan O’Brien’s Royal Ascot juvenile winners in Gstaad and True Love. They also ran against one another in a Navan Maiden, which has proved the strongest race of its type to be run so far this season, the third horse Havana Anna also having won a Listed race at Naas last month. Gstaad should confirm the form, but both are right towards the top of their respective sexes in terms of juvenile quality and their clash is the highlight of the weekend.
In terms of a bet in Ireland on Saturday MY MATE ALFIE / (15:25 Curragh) is worth a look in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes having finished well in third in the race twelve months ago. He is one of a couple in the race with excellent records at the track, which include Tim Easterby’s Art Power, but the eight-year-old’s lack of a run this season is a concern and preference is for the younger horse who ran well carrying a penalty on his latest Curragh foray last time in Listed company.
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