The horse racing broadcaster offers his best bets for each race on the opening day at Royal Ascot, including the big race, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
Large fields are the order of the day on Wednesday at Royal Ascot, including the two juvenile races that bookend the card.
14:30 Queen Mary Stakes
The card begins with the Group 2 Queen Mary for fillies over 5f. Zelaina has dominated this market since her debut at Nottingham in the race the stable introduced Leovanni in before she went on to win last year’s Queen Mary. Zelaina cost significantly more (£650k) than Leovanni had done (£190k) and both race in the Wathnan Racing colours, so comparisons are obvious. Karl Burke has had an excellent season with his juveniles and he has been bullish in his comments about Zelaina, so the only thing not to like is the price.
From a betting perspective, stable companion LOVE OLIVIA 28/1 (14:30 Ascot) may represent better value. A debut win at Wolverhampton was followed by a third in the Marygate, which so far has thrown up three next-time-out winners from the only three horses to have reappeared. She went quite hard on the front end that day and slightly set it up for 33/1 chance Secret Hideaway. Ridden a little more conservatively, she could last quite a bit longer and looks over the odds.
15:05 Queen’s Vase
Given the 1m 6f Queens Vase for three-year-olds is all about untapped stamina, FURTHUR 14/1 (15:05 Ascot) would be an appropriately named winner. He certainly went further than the rest at Chester last time when caught wide, and the race could hardly have received a greater boost than throwing up the first two home in the Derby in Lambourn and Lazy Griff. With a short run to the first bend, an inside gate is also a plus and the Balding yard remain in good form. Covering less ground can see an improved display under Oisin Murphy.
15:40 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
A much smaller field for the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge on the Round Mile, where FALLEN ANGEL 7/2 (15:40 Ascot) takes a drop in grade having competed at Group 1 level since her Sweet Solera win as a juvenile. Those seven races yielded victories in the Moyglare and a Classic with last season’s Irish 1000 Guineas. She may not have been that easy to train recently and looked as if she needed the run in the Lockinge, but with cheekpieces applied and the chance to dictate the gallop, her class can tell. Her chief market rival, Cinderella’s Dream, has a choppy action, took a while to warm up before winning impressively at Newmarket and may find herself quite well back in the field early on, giving the tactical advantage to Fallen Angel.
16:20 Prince of Wales’s Stakes
The feature race on Day 2 is the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 1m 2f, which features a return clash between Los Angeles and ANMAAT 7/2 (16:20 Ascot) from the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month. Los Angeles is a tough horse to pass and, despite making smooth progress on the outside, Anmaat could not make it by. With that run under his belt, Anmaat will strip fitter and has the considerable feather in his cap of having won the Champion Stakes over course and distance last October. The supplementing of See The Fire adds an extra dimension after she routed the field at York, but her opponents here are significantly tougher, while French raider Map of Stars, runner-up in the Prix Ganay, is by Sea The Stars – whose progeny have a good record at the Royal meeting (15/112, A/E ratio 1.17).
17:00 Royal Hunt Cup
One of the big handicaps of the week is up next with 30 runners wide across the track. I am penning this before racing on Tuesday, so please factor in anything learnt from Day 1 regarding the draw. General consensus from those that have walked in before the meeting started is a higher draw may be favoured, at least in the initial days. Hopefully, therefore, stall 31 will prove an asset to THE LIFFEY 7/1 (17:00 Ascot), where the Ballydoyle connection could provide a big clue. The Liffey has only had four career starts and the first three were for Aidan O’Brien before changing hands for £75k last October, joining Aidan’s son Joseph.
Given his absences, it seems fair to conclude that any issues were deemed recoverable given the horse was kept in the family, and the booking of Ryan Moore further reinforces that. He will be better for his stable debut in a Listed race at Naas last month, where he caught the eye staying on over 7f, and this very much looks to have been the target. There are plenty of progressive horses in opposition and he is committed to the stands side from that draw, but The Liffey looks a leading player given his backstory.
17:35 Kensington Palace Stakes
Every bit as hard as the Hunt Cup this year is the Kensington Palace, a sort of Fillies’ equivalent also on the straight mile. Few ride Ascot’s straight track better than Jamie Spencer, especially on a hold-up horse where the competitive nature of this meeting can ensure suitable gallops for those well off the pace. ARISAIG 9/1 (17:35 Ascot) fulfils both these criteria and came from the rear last season at Goodwood under Spencer, who is reunited with her for the first time this season. She showed her wellbeing when second here to top-weight Rainbow’s Edge last month, but the big-field set-up and Spencer’s steering make her appeal more of the pair especially at the prices.
18:10 Windsor Castle Stakes
The meeting closes as it began, with a big field of two-year-olds over 5f this time for the Windsor Castle. This will be the last running of the race under its current format, with it being upped to 6f next year and also a criteria added of the sire needing to have won beyond sprint distances. This has not gone down well with the likes of Karl Burke and Eve Johnson Houghton, who in recent seasons have excelled with their early juveniles, often by sires who will not be qualified to have runners next season. HAVANA HURRICANE 17/2 (18:10 Ascot) is Eve’s runner here and showed great professionalism to win on debut at Goodwood, a notoriously difficult track to win on first time up at two. He then reinforced that with a good run in the Woodcote, but looked as the 6f stretched him. He is drawn quite low in stall 8 but looks much more the finished article than several less streetwise rivals, and handling the hustle and bustle of Derby day will also help him in the preliminaries here as so many youngsters find Royal Ascot a shock so early in their careers.
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