The horse racing broadcaster offers his best bets for this Saturday’s racing, including one in the King George at Ascot.
No clash of the generations in this year’s King George at Ascot reflects the lack of depth to the middle distance three-year-olds, but does provide an intriguing clash of the older horses.
CALANDAGAN / (16:10 Ascot) renews his rivalry with Jan Brueghel, who outstayed him to win the Coronation Cup at Epsom over today’s trip, where a long protracted battle up the straight very much counted in his favour. While Ascot is regarded as quite a stiff 12f, the shorter straight definitely switches the balance in favour of Calandagan, whose Ascot record is excellent. He blitzed the field in the King Edward VII and then was just run down by Anmaat in the Champion Stakes. By contrast, Jan Brueghel is a big, long-striding horse who appreciates a longer straight to gain full momentum and draw the sting out of his rivals. It is by no means a two-horse race, with Rebel’s Romance and the filly Kalpana ensuring that while there are no three-year-olds in the field, the overall standard is still high, but I expect Calandagan to have too many gears for them up the straight.
There look to be a few decent betting opportunities elsewhere at Ascot, starting with the Group 3 Princess Margaret for two-year-olds over 6f. Here, I am happy to take on likely market leader Dance To The Music, who I think is priced as much on pedigree (she is a sister to Space Blues) as actual merit. She is not overly big and her defeat of Eskimo Pie on debut, while creditable enough, still requires another step forward to win here. The choice for me was between FITZELLA / (13:40 Ascot) and Midnight Tango, with the course experience of Fitzella a key factor. A runner up here on her debut, she ran well in the Albany when she was close enough to a strong tempo and is a straightforward ride. Midnight Tango was unlucky in the Empress Fillies Stakes at Newmarket as she was not well-placed with the way the race was run, coming from well back. That form, however, is not as solid as Fitzella’s so while she is certainly respected at a double-figure price, preference is for Hugo Palmer’s juvenile.
CAJOLE’s / (14:20 Ascot) narrow defeat in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot still stings, especially as she looks a Pattern race filly based on her excellent second at Sandown behind Blue Bolt. That day, she had to go back from a wide gate to avoid being held wide, which resulted in her having too much ground to make up. Very well bred, her dam Persuasive not only went one better in the Sandringham but rounded off her career by winning the QEII, she can maintain her progression here at a track the family clearly love.
Later on at Ascot, make note of TENABILITY / (16:45 Ascot), who steps up to 12f for his handicap debut. A big eyecatcher in a race I called at Nottingham on his debut, he got off the mark last time in ready fashion at Windsor, where a tongue tie was fitted and unsurprisingly stays on here. A mark of 81 looks very fair, and it would be no surprise if proves himself well ahead of that for a stable that have had a stop start season.
Away from Ascot, the ITV cameras also cover three races at York, where STRIKE RED / (14:00 York) can continue his love affair with the track. Five previous visits to the Knavesmire have yielded two wins and a second, two of which were achieved of the same mark of 93 that he races off here. The yard are a little quiet but he is versatile as regards ground and is generally better in the second half of the season, so hopefully should be coming to hand.
Finally, even though there is no clash of the generations in the King George, there is the Group 2 York Stakes over 10f. Here, Almaqam will likely be all the rage having defeated Ombudsman – winner of the Prince of Wales’s and narrow Eclipse runner-up since – in the Brigadier Gerard. However, three-year-old STANHOPE GARDENS / (14:40 York) looks worth opposing him with. He had a hurried preparation for the Derby and looked to not quite see out the trip, not helped by being jostled as he was trying to improve. This first run at 10f could prove right up his street, and if Almaqam was in any way flattered by Sandown when his yard were flying, then Stanhope Gardens is good enough to take advantage.
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